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The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a modest uptick in inflation, but the data on price growth are muddied considering October figures were not collected due to the record-long government shutdown.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI was up 0.2% from September to November, slower than the 0.3% month-over-month rise seen in September and matching economists’ expectations.
The CPI was 2.7% higher year over year, below September’s 3.0% rise and the 3.0% increase economists anticipated.
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Energy costs were a large factor behind the monthly increase in headline CPI, according to the BLS, improving 1.1% from September to November. Food costs were also on the rise, up 0.1%.
Other areas that saw price increases over the two-month period included household furnishings and personal care, while lodging away from home, recreation and apparel saw prices edge down.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is considered a more accurate measure of underlying inflation trends, increased 0.2% from September to November and rose 2.6% compared to the same period last year. In September, core CPI was 0.2% higher month over month and 3.0% year over year.
“Today’s low inflation reading won’t move the needle for the Fed given how noisy the data is,” says Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
The absence of October data makes monthly comparisons “impossible,” Haigh adds. “The Fed will instead focus on the December CPI released in mid-January, just two weeks before its next meeting, as a more accurate bellwether for inflation.”
Indeed, rate-cut expectations have changed little following the delayed release of the November CPI. According to CME FedWatch, futures traders are pricing in a 71% chance the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting. Odds for a March rate cut are currently at 46%.
That said, with the November CPI data now in the books, here’s some of what economists, strategists and other experts around Wall Street have to say about the results and what they could mean for the Fed and investors going forward.
Experts’ takes on the November CPI report
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“November CPI coming in weaker than expectations may keep the Federal Reserve on hold for the foreseeable future when it comes to any interest rate decisions. We likely have seen the last interest rate move last week from Chairman Powell’s Fed as they now take a pause to assess if the inflation picture continues to improve and if employment continues to weaken.” – Skyler Weinand, Chief Investment Officer at Regan Capital
“The steady downtrend in shelter costs is starting to bring down core inflation. This is good news for the Fed because shelter is the biggest category in overall inflation. The disinflationary trend may continue this month because oil has dropped and home prices are still under pressure. This is a relief for people worried about a hawkish start to the year. A Santa Rally could still be in the cards.” – David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation
“It always sounds smarter to predict trouble ahead, but this morning’s inflation data was much better than expected. Of course, it’s only one month’s data points and they will likely fluctuate in the upcoming months, but the main concern of Fed officials who are reluctant to keep cutting is that inflation is persistently high and won’t come down if they keep lowering interest rates, and at this point, that doesn’t look like it’s the case.” – Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management
“Some caution is warranted in interpreting the topline inflation readings. The all-important shelter component was unusually weak in the two months leading into November, which may be more noise than signal due to the disruptions from the shutdown. That said, core goods inflation, which is at the epicenter of the tariff passthrough process, seems to have peaked, for now. Elsewhere, food and energy prices matter a lot of consumers’ psychology, and though utilities costs are up appreciably, households are benefiting from minimal pump price growth.” – Bernard Yaros, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics
“Today’s CPI shows disinflation not just holding, but gathering rhythm — a reminder that prices can still move in the right direction, even when the details get noisy.” – Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, Chief Investment and Portfolio Strategist at BlackRock
“Our take is that underlying inflation remains better behaved than we anticipated in late 2025, though we believe several more months of data — beyond the distorted government shutdown period — will be needed to confirm what is a remarkable improvement. At the least, this report adds to our conviction that the buildup of tariff-related inflation should prove limited.” – Jennifer Timmerman, Senior Investment Strategy Analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute
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